The problem
Inquiries were qualified with AND-rule logic: a lead either met every rule or it didn't. Nothing ranked one inquiry above another, so follow-up couldn't be prioritized.
The opportunity
Historical Salesforce outcomes already held the answer: which characteristics come before a won deal.
My approach
- 01
Learn from outcomes
An eight-sheet validation workbook modeled win probability across thousands of leads joined to their opportunity records.
- 02
Find the real signal
Lead quality was the strongest single predictor, so the upstream ruleset was reweighted around it.
- 03
Keep it usable
The model became a points-based HOT / WARM / STANDARD / COLD scale that sales can read and trust.
- 04
Follow the money
The same analysis showed that the highest-volume lead source was one of the weakest converters, while another converted far above baseline, and acquisition spend moved accordingly.
Results & current status
- Captures 66% of eventual wins at 2.4× baseline lift.
- Adopted as the upstream inquiry standard.
- Redirected acquisition spend from low-converting to high-converting sources.